UK Economics Update Migration is preventing the supply of labour from shrinking Putting the politics aside, the high number of migrants coming to the UK for work is the main reason why the number of people willing and able to work isn’t shrinking. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May) Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q1 wage data a concern for the ECB We don’t think the pick-up in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q1 will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. But the continued strength of pay pressures reduces the chance of the ECB... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2024) Today’s May flash PMI survey will have provided the Bank of England with some comfort after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for April. Crucially, the further fall in the services... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) Poland’s activity data for April revealed that retail sales growth softened a bit more than expected last month, but that the weakness in industry in March was just a temporary blip. On balance, we... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What will the July general election mean for the economy? The general election on Thursday 4th July, which the Prime Minister announced today, may usher in a new political era but it is unlikely to lead to a dramatically different economic outlook. The... 22nd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024) Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think... 22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2024) April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big tax cuts at another pre-election fiscal event... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) In response to the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April, we now think that the Bank of England will first cut interest rates in August rather than in June. And the data cast some doubt... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Construction Output (March 2024) Euro-zone construction output rose slightly in March but we think the sector will struggle over the coming months. 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update An early look at Germany’s next general election The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the... 20th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
