Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Nov. 2023) The rise in the headline rate and slight fall in the core rate in November was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So we think Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with a final interest... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the... 8th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk vs. Glapinski heating up, Russia's policy troubles The debate around whether Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski could be brought before the State Tribunal and be removed from his post took twists and turns this week. But at this stage the... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tide turning to earlier rate cuts, but BoE to cut last Investors now think the first interest rate cut will happen in June next year instead of August, with an 80% chance of a cut by May. Our forecast is that the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates... 8th December 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Why we’ve changed our ECB view We had been expecting next Thursday’s ECB meeting to be another non-event, but it now looks likely to provide some idea of how soon and how fast policymakers are willing to start cutting interest... 8th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read
BoE Watch BoE unlikely to fuel market rate cut expectations With the Bank of England almost certain to keep interest rates at 5.25% for the third policy meeting in a row on Thursday 14th December, the focus will be on whether the Bank provides any signals of... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons from 2023 and forecasts for 2024 Even though we expect the economy to be weaker than the consensus in 2024, we think that lingering constraints on domestic supply will prevent wage growth and services CPI inflation from falling quite... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tide turns towards rate cuts in Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan recently reiterated the Bank’s line that “we will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy further if necessary” but the actual question is whether policymakers will hesitate... 7th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update One last hike to come at Norges Bank Despite the recent paring back of interest rate expectations across Europe, we think Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with one final 25bp hike next week – taking the policy rate to a peak of 4.50% –... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2023) The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in November mirrored the increase in the Nationwide index, confirming that house prices have not only stabilised, but are rising... 7th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 6th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
