UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (14 Dec. 2023) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle comes to an end Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dovish hold by SNB, policy loosening imminent Today’s SNB decision and statement were largely in line with expectations as the policy rate was held at 1.75% and policymakers removed any mention of FX sales. We think the latter decision signals... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Dec. 2023) Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2023) The SNB kept rates on hold at 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, but the monetary policy statement was dovish as policymakers placed less emphasis on selling FX assets and reduced their inflation... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 23) Declining mortgage rates have already generated a significant improvement in demand, with the new buyer enquiries and sales expectations balances recording their strongest readings for over a year and... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Downward trend in mortgage rates unlikely to continue Falls in financial market interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will drop to a six-month low in December. That will support a further recovery in housing market activity in the near term... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Contraction in October sets scene for stagnation in 2024 The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in October (consensus forecast 0.0%, CE forecast -0.2%) suggests that the economy may go nowhere again in Q4 or perhaps is in the mildest of mild recessions. That may... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession and rate cuts The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 12th December 2023 · 30 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2023) The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest rates could be cut as soon as the middle of next year and it leaves our forecast for rate cuts... 12th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
