Global Markets Update Some new market forecasts for a changing world The unravelling of US exceptionalism in stock markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January has been mainly driven by concerns about the US’ dominance of AI and the relative... 6th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50% today came alongside new language which shows that policymakers are becoming less certain about the future path of interest rates. Looser... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to cut its policy rate by 250bp again today, to 42.50%, suggest that policymakers were reassured by the fall in... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Feb. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 44.6 in February, from 48.1 in January, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (February) CPIF inflation rose in February to 2.9%, supporting our view that the Riksbank’s loosening cycle is over. 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update The biggest cities will continue to underperform Five years ago, we were downbeat about the immediate prospects for the largest city real estate markets, the so-called gateways, and that view has proved correct. But we also argued that this malaise... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (February) While we still think the SNB is most likely to err on the side of caution and cut its policy rate by a further 25bp on the 20 th March, higher than expected inflation in February increases the chance... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German fiscal announcement The announcement by Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, that the parties which are likely to form the next government have agreed to substantially boost defence and infrastructure... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Are UK and US households still keen to pay more for living space? The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Market impact of more defence spending in Europe While the prospect of more defence spending in Europe is pushing up government bond yields there, we still expect Bund yields to fall back. Meanwhile, even if defence stocks in Europe kept outpacing... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
