UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024)

The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (June 2024)

The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook

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The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F

Europe Rapid Response

France early election, EU elections

Support for the centrists has held up quite well in European elections but this was overshadowed by the jump in votes for the far-right in France and President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve...

10th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

EU to move cautiously on China de-risking

In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors...

7th June 2024 · 17 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The disconnect between the tax and spending plans

While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a...

7th June 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Export-led recovery, higher ECB forecast

Data released this week showed that the euro-zone’s recovery in the first quarter was mainly driven by exports, with domestic demand still subdued. Nevertheless, the recent stronger-than-expected...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (May 2024)

The slight decline in the Halifax house price index in May confirmed that the increase in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. Mortgage rates have continued to...

7th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB

While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10...

6th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB fires starting gun but rate cuts will be gradual

The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Tables turning in favour of southern European offices

Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets.

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read