Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 23) Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 in review While we got mortgage rates and lending roughly right in 2023, house prices fell by less than we expected as longer mortgage terms, strong demand from cash buyers, and tight supply came together to... 28th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The good news on inflation should continue in 2024 It is striking that the big fall in UK CPI inflation so far has followed the US closely, albeit with a six month lag. This reflects the fact there have been common drivers of inflation across advanced... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2023) The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black Friday discounting provided retailers with some much needed Christmas cheer. But with higher... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2023 Final) The 0.1% q/q fall in real GDP in Q3 may mean that the mildest of mild recessions started in Q3. But whether or not there is a small recession, the big picture is that we expect real GDP growth to... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB behind the curve; new EU fiscal rules The latest core inflation data suggest that ECB policymakers will be forced to cut interest rates sooner than they currently think. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed new budget rules, but we suspect that... 21st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris the weak link among French logistics markets A relatively resilient economy and tight supply will support French industrial rent growth in the next two years. However, regional markets stand to benefit most. Availability is greater, and rising... 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Nov.) Poland’s activity data for November suggest that the economic recovery stalled last month, but we think that this is only a temporary blip. We still expect GDP growth to strengthen from around 0.5% in... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2023) We doubt November’s public finances figures will prevent the Chancellor from unveiling a further pre-election fiscal splash in the Spring Budget. 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail revival to stall after 2024 In Warsaw, more favourable economic conditions will support retail spending and prime rents in the short term. But from 2025, faster rises in online shopping than elsewhere in Europe will cause the... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Costa resignation won’t reverse Portugal debt progress The end of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa’s time in office does not signify the end of Portugal’s impressive period of debt reduction. We think any future government is likely to exercise... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2023) For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November (consensus forecast 4.4%, CE 4.5%, BoE 4.6%) and services CPI inflation from 6.6% to 6.3% (CE... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
