Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (May) The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, remained at 2.3% in May, but the core measure (CPIF excluding energy) rose slightly for the second month in a row. We think the Riksbank will leave... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation... 13th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto? While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to stick to hawkish tone Norges Bank will leave its policy rate at 4.5% next week and reiterate that rate cuts are some way off. We think it will wait until December to start loosening monetary policy. 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but... 13th June 2024 · 32 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK Equities may underperform regardless of the election We doubt the outcome of the UK’s general election will have a big impact on UK equities in general. Nonetheless, we still expect them to continue to underperform US equities. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2024) The 0.1% m/m decrease in euro-zone industrial production in April was slightly weaker than the published consensus forecast of 0.2% rise, but expectations will have fallen since Ireland’s data were... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024) Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus The euro could stay lower for longer Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies... 12th June 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy? The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and... 12th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EU duties on Chinese EVs Reports that the European Commission will “provisionally apply” additional duties of up to 25% on imports of EVs from China from July, on top of the 10% tariff already in place, are in line with... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2024) The stagnation in GDP in April (consensus 0.0%, CE -0.1%) doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished, but it’s hardly great news for the Prime Minister three weeks ahead of the election. 12th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office? France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
