Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CPI data point to faster rate cuts in parts of CEE The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to win the race to get inflation below 2% Even though the next two CPI inflation releases may fuel the narrative that the downward trend in inflation is stalling, we think that inflation in the UK will fall below the 2.0% target in April... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers start the year talking about rate cuts In their first comments of 2024, ECB policymakers acknowledged that the next interest rate move is likely to be a cut, though they emphasised the need for greater certainty on inflation before going... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2023) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession in 2023. And with rates for new mortgages now falling and lower... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update No sign of a flight to quality in office pricing, yet Much has been talked about a ‘flight to quality’ in the office sector given the structural shift to hybrid working. However, while there is evidence of this in relative rental performance, a look at... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italy retail rent growth to slow, but continues to lead The surge in Italian prime retail rents over the past year is likely to give way in 2024, as inflation falls back and consumer spending stagnates. But the strong fundamentals that have supported this... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of a rise in the ECB’s reserve requirements Some ECB Governing Council Members have called for an increase in reserves requirements, primarily in order to reduce the Eurosystem’s interest expenditure. If implemented – which we think is likely –... 10th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Dec. 2023) The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges Bank’s most recent interest rate hike will have been the last in this tightening cycle. We think... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus... 9th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German industry still has further to fall Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read