UK Commercial Property Update Why are residential yields so low? Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis? If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the... 25th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (May) The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024) June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health. 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands set to outperform the euro-zone average With all eyes on France, it is easy to forget that the Netherlands has also been experiencing political disruption over the last 12 months. But politics there has proved less disruptive to markets and... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key economic implications of a Labour govt Since Labour’s fiscal plans are very similar to the current government’s and as Labour is unlikely to deviate from its manifesto quickly, we doubt we will be ripping up our economic forecasts on Day 1... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why we think yield compression will be limited With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower... 21st June 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
