UK Economics Weekly A beacon of economic and political stability? While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France, Italy & Spain HICP (June) Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2024 Final) The upward revision to Q1 GDP growth from 0.6% q/q to 0.7% q/q (consensus forecast 0.6% q/q) suggests whoever is Prime Minister this time next week may benefit from the economic recovery being a bit... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices to slip back in the near term The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have? If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, the post-meeting... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably... 27th June 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Assessing French election risk for the euro The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for June is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP and suggests that price pressures continue to ease in manufacturing but remain strong in the services... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth strengthened at the end of Q2, with our regional-weighted measure of sentiment... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth likely to remain slow May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Benelux prime office rent outperformance to wane A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024) The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
