UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023) December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.2% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy contracted over 2023 as a whole, and we think that this is likely to be followed by tepid growth this year. We maintain our... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary-EU tensions ratchet up with EU funds at stake Were the EU to block Hungary’s access to funds (if it vetoes financing for Ukraine at this week’s summit), as reports on Sunday suggested, this would probably have a smaller direct impact on Hungary’s... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s interest rate proposal, last CBRT rate hike The proposal by the Hungarian government this week to change the reference rate used to price bank loans has sparked a lot of criticism and risks undermining the central bank’s independence. We think... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Misinterpreting the ECB Most commentators and investors have concluded that yesterday’s ECB meeting signalled that an April rate cut is a near certainty. We disagree. While an April rate cut is still our base case, the risks... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation risks may be on the horizon Big falls in the Ofgem utility price cap in April and July could mean that CPI inflation falls from 4.0% in December 2023 to just 0.3% by September. If the chances of inflation hovering only a bit... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal? Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the... 25th January 2024 · 20 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024) London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates in second half of year The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting. 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals summer rate cut The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and stuck to the argument that a first rate cut is most likely in the summer. An earlier move is still possible if the inflation data are weak in the next few... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest RICS survey offers little sign of recovery The latest RICS survey offered tentative signs that we could be past the worst of the property downturn in Europe, as both occupier and investment demand balances picked up slightly. However, the big... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023) Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB sticks to its guns Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. In the forthcoming press conference, Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
