UK Economics Update Rate cuts may come sooner than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent a signal that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back strongly against the idea that rates... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Feb. 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent some soft signals that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back more strongly against the... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2024) January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were released yesterday. While the euro-zone’s headline and core inflation rates... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Riksbank signalled unequivocally in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated. While a March rate cut is possible, particularly if the January... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm... 31st January 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Annual GDP (2023) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% expansion in Polish GDP over 2023 as a whole suggests that the economy struggled at the end of the year. We think this weakness will prove temporary and that activity... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Jan. 2024) The larger than expected +0.7% m/m gain in house prices in January (consensus: +0.1%, Capital Economics: +0.4%) reflected improving public sentiment about the economy and the housing market and... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Hungarian central bank’s communications following its meeting today confirm that the decision not to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle was due to the recent ratcheting up of tensions between... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strength in services price expectations a concern January’s European Commission business and consumer survey, released this morning, supports our view that the euro-zone economy will stagnate in Q1. But recent increases in services firms’ price... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in January, but our regional measure rose for the fourth consecutive month and points to... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2023) The euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we think that it will flat-line in the first half of this year too as the effects of past monetary tightening continue to feed through and fiscal policy... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
