UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

CPI inflation stayed in line with the 2.0% target in June – exactly where the Bank of England thought it would be (consensus and CE forecasts 1.9%) – but the composition of inflation remains a problem...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Bank Lending Survey points to recovery in credit

The Bank Lending Survey suggests that there was a pick-up in demand for bank loans in the second quarter particularly for residential mortgages and consumer credit. This is consistent with the...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (May 2024)

Industrial production in the euro-zone fell again in May and we think the outlook remains poor.

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus

The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a...

12th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Spain versus England: An economics match-up

If the economic outlook translated to success on the football pitch, faster GDP growth and lower interest rates may mean Spain has the edge over England to win the men’s Euros on Sunday night. We're...

12th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France struggling (and not just at football)

France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary fiscal tightening, June inflation re-cap

Hungary’s fiscal tightening measures announced this week are a step in the right direction, but we are sceptical that the deficit will come down far enough to put the public debt ratio onto a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

High migration to support strong GDP growth in Spain

We think Spain’s economy will grow strongly over the next few years, substantially outperforming the euro-zone. This is partly due to strong domestic demand which has been supported by the rapid...

12th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (June)

The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, dropped to just 1.3% in June, almost half the level in May and the lowest level since the end of 2020. This was far below the consensus forecast of 1...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024)

Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

ECB Watch

Interest rates on hold amid strong price pressures

The ECB is likely to leave the deposit rate on hold at 3.75% next week and refrain from any explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. The continued strength of wage growth and...

11th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Markets Update

Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly

We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years.

11th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery

The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024)

Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (May 2024)

The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in May (consensus forecast 0.2%, CE forecast 0.3%) will be welcomed by the new Chancellor after announcing earlier this week that she will make...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read