Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending growth picking up only gradually New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2024) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in October still left it deep in recessionary territory. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also weak, we now expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region. 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 24) Capital values are now recovering and, notwithstanding a recent rise in interest rates, will continue to do so. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy? A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024) The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch EPC evidence highlights risk from stranded assets There is growing concern about how the green transition may create stranded real estate assets, impacting negatively on both lenders and investors. We can get some idea of the scale of the problem in... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for German residential? Poor economic growth and vulnerability to structural change in the office and retail sector are set to weigh on German property returns in the coming years. But solid rental prospects in the... 23rd October 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of a Trump victory on Europe A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and... 22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the capital value recovery? The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
