Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy continued to shrink in Q1. 23rd February 2024 · 1 min read
Event Property Drop-In: UK commercial property’s muted recovery 1709114400 All-property total returns will turn positive in 2024 but we don’t think the recovery will be much to write home about.
Europe Economics Update Why has euro-zone services inflation stopped falling? The stalling in services disinflation in recent months is largely due to technical factors and one-offs. If services prices continue to increase at their recent pace in month-on-month terms, the year... 22nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Energy Update Carbon price not out of the woods yet This Update marks the launch of our EU carbon price forecasts and coverage, including an in-depth mini-series on key market and price dynamics, and an accompanying dashboard to track market drivers... 22nd February 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Forecasting near-term moves in the carbon price This final report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU... 22nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Modelling market fundamentals and price dynamics This second report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon... 22nd February 2024 · 10 mins read
Climate Economics Focus A primer on the EU’s emissions trading scheme This first report of a three-part mini-series explains what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in 2005. It then explores how reforms to the ETS... 22nd February 2024 · 13 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices 1710408600 Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s activity data for January suggest that the reacceleration in wage growth at the start of this year supported domestic demand, while the export-orientated industrial sector struggled. We think... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Feb. 2024) The flash PMIs for February suggest that the economy is still struggling and that price pressures are, if anything, intensifying. This does not dramatically change the picture for the ECB, but it does... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value... 21st February 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finances figures delivered some much-needed good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 6th March. But we doubt this will pave the way for a very big pre-election... 21st February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2024 Preview – Electioneering beats prudence Using most of the fiscal headroom of about £15bn to cut taxes in the Spring Budget on 6th March would show that the Chancellor is putting the election before prudence. Such tax cuts may help lift the... 20th February 2024 · 21 mins read
