Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro... 26th July 2024 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey sours on France, turns upbeat on values The Q2 RICS survey showed that sentiment toward offices is improving – occupier demand balances saw the largest sectoral rise and rent and value growth expectations were raised. With year-ahead... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Commercial property capital values bottom out The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the... 25th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Sterling still likely to weaken later this year While the pound has outperformed all major G10 currencies so far this year, we still expect it to depreciate against the greenback later in the year as the Bank of England eases monetary policy more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Olympics no game changer for French economy Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP... 24th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarket recovery delayed, but still imminent Supermarkets struggled in 2023, as falling food sales volumes hit profits and rental growth. But the future looks brighter. As food price inflation has fallen supermarket profits have recovered and... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2024) The flash PMIs for July suggest that the euro-zone’s recovery may be fizzling out at the start of Q3, while output price pressures eased but remained high in the services sector. 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024) July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine? Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might... 23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25bp again today, to 6.75%, and the post-meeting press conference suggests that, while there are some MPC members who want to pause the easing... 23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the UK’s fiscal situation as bad as the Chancellor says? Without wishing to downplay the ugly fiscal picture, we think the new government is overplaying the gloom. We suspect more optimistic economic forecasts and various tweaks to the fiscal rules will... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
