Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign...

1st August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Update

Rates cut to 5.00%, but BoE in no rush to cut again

The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Office conversion proceeding faster than expected

We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Price Index (Jul. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Jun.)

Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y.

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Key highlights from July

This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in July, including the latest climate policy changes made by the new UK government, the effect of overcapacity on Chinese solar...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CBD shift clearest in the largest office markets

At the end of the pandemic, there was a view that remote working would drive a wedge between CBD and other submarket rents. The evidence of this remains uneven. But in some cities, notably Paris and...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns

Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia.

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (July 2024)

The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Upside risks to interest rates have increased

We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%...

31st July 2024 · 10 mins read

Capital Daily

ECB still likely to cut in September despite mixed data

Today’s release of inflation and activity data for the euro-zone has in our view slightly reduced the chances of a cut from the ECB at its next meeting. However, the bigger picture is that the data...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read