Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest) Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Housing leading the economy out of recession The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB patient, SNB eyeing early rate cut This week's data releases will have reinforced the view of ECB policymakers that they should be patient before beginning to loosen monetary policy. Indeed, the monthly pace of services inflation... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Feb. 2024) Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. But recent increases in interest rate... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Central and Eastern Europe ended 2023 on a weak note, but the outlook for... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from February This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in February, including the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, and the launch of our coverage of the EU carbon... 29th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q4 2023.) The second successive 0.3% q/q increase in Swiss GDP in Q4 was better than the consensus and our own forecasts of 0.1% and we now think economic growth is likely to accelerate further in the coming... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2023) The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
