Europe Commercial Property Update

Investment turns a corner, but recovery will be uneven

The Q2 rise in euro-zone investment marks the start of the recovery, but one that will be weak and uneven across markets. Economic and political concerns means investment in Germany and France is...

7th August 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2024)

After three months of stagnation, the bigger-than-expected rise in the Halifax house price index in July provides further evidence that house prices are bouncing back from the slight rise in mortgage...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK

Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if...

6th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads

While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a...

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Investment recovering, but not without risks

While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024)

Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates.

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul 24)

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Tourism to keep supporting southern outperformance

Tourism in the euro-zone is likely to continue growing at a decent pace over the coming quarters due to rising real wages and increased capacity. This will be a particular boon to the southern...

5th August 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

London industrial demand will soon recover

The impact of the cost-of-living crisis, which has been weighing on London industrial take-up, has a bit further to run. But London is well-positioned to benefit from the rise in consumer spending we...

5th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Doubting the BoE’s hawkish tilt

It may seem odd that we’re still forecasting interest rates to fall from 5.00% now to 4.50% this year and to 3.00% next year when the Bank of England said this week that it doesn't expect to cut rates...

2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on...

2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence

We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (July)

Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six...

2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read