UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024)

While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.)

The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Feb. 2024)

February’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that the OBR’s new 2023/24 borrowing forecast published in March’s Budget already looks too optimistic. But this may not prevent the government...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we think that it will continue easing policy throughout 2024. Our forecast for interest rates to fall to 3.50% by the end...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank eyeing May for first rate cut

We think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% next week but cut it by 25bp at the following meeting, in May. Beyond that, our forecast is for rates to come down much faster than...

20th March 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

The second bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in as many months, from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February probably won’t make the Bank of England sound any more dovish when it leaves interest...

20th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Germany will be stuck in the slow lane

The recent weakness of Germany’s economy is partly due to temporary factors which should ease this year. However, demographic and structural headwinds, partly driven by global fragmentation, mean the...

19th March 2024 · 21 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Putin 5.0: what to look out for now

Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness

Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest...

15th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

ECB rate cuts will do little to boost growth

The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be...

15th March 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Weak productivity may keep domestic inflation sticky

If the UK's recent dismal productivity performance continues, the Bank of England may need to wait for wage growth to fall further before it feels comfortable cutting interest rates. With the latest...

15th March 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB doesn’t need to wait for the Fed

The ECB’s new operational framework, announced this week, doesn’t change the near-term outlook for monetary policy: we still expect the Bank to start cutting interest rates in June. And even though...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts

Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think...

14th March 2024 · 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Sounding hawkish, but data may soon change the BoE’s tune

At the policy meeting on Thursday 21st March, the Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row and retain its hawkish guidance. But we...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read