UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) After a weather disrupted Q2, July’s 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes (consensus forecast 0.6% m/m, CE forecast 0.5% m/m) was largely driven by two sectors and only partially reversed June’s 0.9%... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall While expectations for interest rates in the UK have already fallen by 40bp by end-2025 since mid-July, our projections for UK CPI inflation to remain below the 2% target for much of 2025 and 2026... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Revising up our 2024 house price forecast Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank remains hawkish Norges Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, at 4.5%, was never in doubt. However, we still suspect that continued declines in inflation will allow it to start cutting... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024) While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates with more on the way Since the Riksbank’s last meeting in June, Swedish inflation and activity data have been weaker than policymakers expected. We think this will encourage them to cut the key policy rate from 3.75% to 3... 14th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail investment will continue to lead the recovery Commercial property investment is on track to hit our forecast for a rise of 20% this year, helped by a substantial rise in retail transactions. A decent rental growth outlook coupled with attractive... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, 2nd est.), Employment (Q2) and Industrial Production (June) 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2024) The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The smaller-than-expected rise in CPI inflation from 2.0% in June to 2.2% in July (consensus forecast 2.3%, Capital Economics 2.1%, Bank of England 2.4%) and the sharp fall in services inflation from... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun. 2024) The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. This lends some support to our forecast that the Bank of... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
