Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly European fiscal strains getting worse It was revealed this week that France’s deficit in 2025 was much higher than expected, adding to concerns about Europe’s public finances. While the EU’s fiscal rules do not kick in until 2025, it now... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from March This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in March, including the launches of our New Three Export Indices and our second annual Climate Economics Outlook. 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rate cuts may crimp household income It’s unusual that higher interest rates have directly boosted household incomes by raising the amount of interest households have received on their savings by more than the interest they have paid on... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued February’s money and credit data suggest that the effect of tighter monetary policy has eased slightly. But the data are still very weak and we think that rate cuts later in the year will lead to only... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2023 Final) The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at the end of last year. But timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone sovereign spreads may have limited scope to fall We expect the spreads between the yield of the 10-year German bund and its ‘riskier’ counterparts in other euro-zone economies to narrow only a little further this year. If anything, we think that the... 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris prime office rent gains to slow After a solid 2023, we expect Paris prime office rental growth to slow markedly over the next couple of years as demand softens, supply rises and affordability bites. That said, rental gains over 2024... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates faster than markets expect We think investors are underestimating the extent of rates cuts that the Riksbank will make this year. Policymakers are, rightly in our view, increasingly confident that inflation will soon return... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for March reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession and that, although price pressures in the services sector eased somewhat, they remain... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to remain high in 2024 Data released today showed that Spanish inflation picked up from 2.9% in February to 3.2% in March. We think it is likely to increase further over the coming months due to base effects in energy... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
