Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 100bp this year The ECB’s decision to update its guidance suggests that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June is very likely. Christine Lagarde would understandably not commit to a path of rate cuts, but... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Answering questions from our recent Drop-In This week we held a Drop-In on the outlook for euro-zone commercial property. Clients can access a recording here. This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024) Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The drag on credit from higher rates continues to fade The Bank of England’s Q1 Credit Conditions Survey provides further evidence that the drag on activity from high interest rates is starting to fade. Looser credit conditions will soon aid the economic... 11th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the BoE cut rates earlier and faster than the Fed? Even if the US Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged for longer than we expect, our forecast that inflation in the UK will be lower than in the US suggests this won’t prevent the Bank of... 11th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. Central bank governor... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s public finances still a cause for concern After a period of relative calm, Italy’s fragile public finances are likely to come under the spotlight again before long. Budget deficits will be much higher than the latest government projections... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in February was the second in as many months, and together with the Bank of England’s clearer hints that it is getting close to cutting interest rates... 9th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to continued weak activity The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that the drag on lending growth from tight monetary policy continued to ease. But the data remain consistent with broadly stagnant consumption and declines in... 9th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE should start publishing interest rate projections The Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications will probably recommend the Bank illustrates the risks around its forecasts using alternative scenarios rather than fan... 8th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will remain close to recession in the near term. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB is very... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive large monthly rise in German industrial production in February confirms the sector has started the year on a better note. But we still expect it to struggle over the rest of... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q4) & Activity Data (Feb.) The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How much should we read into the collapse in starts? The further slump in housing starts in Q4 was a surprise, but timelier data and leading indicators suggest activity has since begun to recover. We are therefore happy with our forecast of a gradual... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
