Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2024) The bigger-than-expected increase in the Composite PMI for April suggests that the euro-zone is coming out of recession, but this will not prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr. 2024) Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at the start of Q2, the more marked fall in the services output prices balance may make the Bank of... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2024) March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further doubt on the ability of the government to unveil... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Multifamily rents set to outperform New more granular MSCI data shows that the outperformance of residential property over the past decade was primarily down to student housing. Indeed, only in the past couple of years have multifamily... 22nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the... 19th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will worries about the euro stop the ECB from cutting? Movements in the exchange rate tend to have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation. So while the euro might weaken if monetary policy in the euro-zone and US were to diverge, we think it would... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and gas price spikes not likely to stop ECB cuts We think the risk of a large and sustained rise in energy prices is low so we remain happy with our forecast that the ECB will cut rates by 125bp this year. If energy prices were to jump very sharply... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global and domestic inflation risks mount We still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures by enough to result in CPI inflation falling below the 2% target in April and below 1.0% later... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.5 % m/m), sales volumes still rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 as a whole, bringing the... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Germany’s struggles mean for CEE? The continued weakness in the German economy that we expect over the rest of this decade presents a challenge to the export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While GDP growth... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What different timings for rate cuts mean for DM bond yields We forecast that bond yields will fall back in most developed markets (DMs) over the next year or so, as central banks generally embark on bigger easing cycles than investors currently expect. But... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German manufacturing: from growth driver to drag Germany’s manufacturing sector has been in relative decline since around 2017. We think it will continue to shrink in the coming years and expect productivity growth in the sector to remain relatively... 18th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the... 17th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium’s public debt a cause for concern? We think it is most likely that future governments bring down Belgium’s budget deficit sufficiently to put its debt on a sustainable trajectory. However, the risks are that the deficit is higher than... 17th April 2024 · 4 mins read
