Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The implications of more public investment A big increase in public investment in the Budget on 30th October would push up demand before any rise in supply is felt. That could mean over the next year or two inflation is a bit higher than... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France & Spain HICP (September 2024) September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target. 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German logistics to go from leader to laggard Tight supply conditions have boosted German prime logistics rents despite weak occupier demand. This looks set to continue over the next year or two given completions pipelines for the German markets... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 · 44 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s fiscal problem – from bad to worse France’s new government suggested yesterday that the budget deficit will be over 6% of GDP this year, rather than the 5.6% as indicated only a couple of weeks ago. We expect the government to struggle... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure to struggle as high earners’ incomes squeezed The leisure sector is yet to show signs of recovery from the cost-of-living crisis, in part because still-cautious households are prioritising buying goods rather than expensive leisure services. But... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to cut rates by at least another 50bp While the SNB only cut the policy rate by 25bp today to 1.0%, the accompanying statement was very dovish and indicated that there are at least two more rate cuts on the way, probably in 25bp... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sept. 2024) The SNB’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% today shows that it prefers a gradual approach to policy loosening, but the accompanying statement indicates clearly that further cuts are on... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will recession in Germany drag stocks there down? We expect equities in Germany to continue rising even though the economy there appears to be in another ‘technical’ recession. But we expect them to lag those elsewhere over the coming year or so. 25th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, to 4.25%, was followed by communications which, on balance, felt a bit more dovish than at the last meeting. We... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions answered We held an online Drop-In session this week to discuss the outlook for the euro-zone. (See a recording here.) This Update addresses some of the questions that we received, including some that we didn... 25th September 2024 · 6 mins read
