Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU’s trade war with China Europe will raise barriers to trade and investment with China in the coming months and years. But policymakers will try to balance conflicting objectives so the result may well be a gradual rather... 7th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's trade ban with Israel: assessing the impact The decision by Turkey last week to suspend all goods trade with Israel until there is a permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza is unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Luxury rental growth to outperform mass market retail The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years. 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to make of the surge in China’s carbon price? The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity? The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more... 3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data support the case of the ECB’s doves Data released this week showed that euro-zone services inflation fell in April for the first time in five months. We think that the continued pass-through of lower energy costs and slower wage growth... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank still in hawkish mood Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Swiss inflation skewed to the downside Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to start easing cycle The Riksbank is likely to kick off its easing cycle next week by cutting its policy rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. Beyond that, our forecast is for 100bp of rate cuts this year which is substantially more... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to weakness in construction to come Euro-zone construction output picked up at the beginning of this year but we don’t think this was the beginning of a sustained rebound. Surveys suggest that output will decline in the next few months... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May) The communications accompanying the decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp again today (to 5.25%) were slightly more hawkish than expected, but we still think that a... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Answering your questions on the German economy On Tuesday we held a Drop-in on the outlook for the German economy. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed and answers some of the questions that we received during the event. 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further rises in property yields still on the cards The weakness in euro-zone investment in Q1 highlights that the pricing correction to date has not been enough to entice investors back to the sector. Lower market interest rates will support the... 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
