Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No need to panic about a US-style surge in GDP (yet) The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 was the largest quarterly rise since Q4 2021 and has triggered fears that the UK could be heading for a US-style surge in GDP growth that prevents inflation from... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift... 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2024) The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had anticipated. This raises the... 10th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Scope for Gilt yields and sterling to fall further Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) are edging closer to easing policy, and we still think they will cut Bank Rate by more than widely anticipated. In turn, we expect this will weigh on Gilt... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE may cut rates in June and reduce them to 3.00% next year While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (May 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian industrial upswing has further to run The Italian industrial market made a strong start to 2024, with prime rent growth outpacing the rest of the euro-zone and beating our own forecasts. Rental gains are still expected to slow going... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (April 2024) Increasing supply points to softer price growth While sales volumes were robust in April according to the RICS Residential Market Survey, stalling demand and increasing supply suggests that prices... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) While regular private sector wage growth in February and services CPI inflation in March were both a bit higher than the Bank of England had expected, we still think that the flatlining of the economy... 8th May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut faster than it is forecasting The Riksbank is likely to follow today’s 25bp rate cut with three more cuts this year, which is one more than the central bank itself forecasts and more than investors are pricing in. The case for... 8th May 2024 · 3 mins read
