UK Economics Weekly Oil prices would need to jump further to influence BoE While the Bank of England is watching the developments in the Middle East “very closely”, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the Bank could start cutting interest rates more aggressively if the good... 4th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Budget reaction – Rachel Reeves’ statement and the UK economic and market consequences 1730300400 After months of speculation, investors will find out how the UK Chancellor plans to balance tax, spending and investment decisions as the new government tries to
Event UK Drop-In: Budget preview – What to expect from Rachel Reeves’ big day 1729087200 This could be a Budget statement that defines the UK economy’s performance through the rest of this decade.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to pause its easing cycle today, leaving the policy rate at 6.50%, seems to reflect growing concern about the persistence of underlying inflationary... 4th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see more weakness in GBP, notably against EUR The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Headline inflation will be below 2% next year After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Out-of-town retail will continue to beat the street Non-high street retail subsectors have seen a stronger rental recovery from post-pandemic lows than high street shops. And we think this outperformance will continue given tighter availability and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War escalates; all eyes on Israel Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
