Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could rise after the election? Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Event Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of macro and markets leadership 1718265600 The global economy has been marked by the outperformance of the US economy and its financial markets. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
UK Commercial Property Update Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values? Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (May) Switzerland’s inflation rate remained at 1.4% in May as an increase in rents was offset by a further fall in core goods prices. With inflation in line with the SNB’s forecast published in March and... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Zloty’s appreciation may come to a halt Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update France rating downgrade won’t be the last With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 75.45% y/y in May (consensus 74.8%) is slightly disappointing. It had looked like price pressures were easing in recent months, but the 3.4% m/m... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the... 31st May 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets? The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (May 2024) Most assets notched up gains this month, with “risky” ones generally outperforming “safe” ones. Government bond yields generally edged down in May and we expect that to continue, given our view that... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (May 2024) May’s increases in headline and core inflation – and jump in services inflation to a seven-month high – won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates next week. But another reduction in July now... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
