Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook 1718013600 The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F
Europe Rapid Response France early election, EU elections Support for the centrists has held up quite well in European elections but this was overshadowed by the jump in votes for the far-right in France and President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve... 10th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus EU to move cautiously on China de-risking In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors... 7th June 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Export-led recovery, higher ECB forecast Data released this week showed that the euro-zone’s recovery in the first quarter was mainly driven by exports, with domestic demand still subdued. Nevertheless, the recent stronger-than-expected... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2024) The slight decline in the Halifax house price index in May confirmed that the increase in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. Mortgage rates have continued to... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB fires starting gun but rate cuts will be gradual The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tables turning in favour of southern European offices Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets. 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is... 6th June 2024 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (April 2024) Retail sales ticked down in April we expect them to rise gradually from here. 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
