UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2024)

October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing...

1st November 2024 · 3 mins read

Bonds & Equities

How worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?

While the market fallout from yesterday’s UK budget announcement is still a very long way from the 2022 “mini-budget” debacle, the surge in Gilt yields and fall in sterling over the past couple of...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Budget not a game-changer for the housing market

The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

One step at a time for the Riksbank

Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?

The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates for the second time in this cycle, from 5.00% to 4.75%, at the meeting on Thursday 7th November. But it is unlikely to hint that it intends...

31st October 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery?

We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS: Weak occupier demand a risk to recovery

The latest RICS survey showed that investor sentiment continued to improve in Europe in Q3, adding to the growing evidence that the market has bottomed. However, declines in reported occupier demand...

31st October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (October)

Euro-zone inflation came in a touch higher than expected in October but was still below the ECB’s projections for Q4. While policymakers have pushed back this week against the case for faster rate...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of today’s sell-off in Gilts

The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less...

30th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y.

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy

This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read