Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s renewed fall in the euro-zone composite PMI offers some early support to our view that the fragile recovery will slow in the second half of the year. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) Today’s weak PMI reading from China will reinforce the negative sentiment towards commodities, notably industrial commodities, but demand should still pick up on further policy easing. Meanwhile... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Greater scope for prime office yields to narrow in Munich than London The spread between government bond yields in Germany and the UK is less indicative of the relative strength of the two countries’ economic outlooks than it was in the past. As such, in contrast to... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s recovery: lessons from Iberia Spain’s and Portugal’s recoveries offer some hope for Italy, the periphery’s laggard. But Italy’s exports are still too uncompetitive and its firms too unprofitable to mimic the export and investment... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek economy ever return to normal? Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek elections won’t ensure passage of bailout Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal clears some hurdles, plenty left The plan for a third Greek bailout has cleared a number of hurdles over the last week, including provisional approval by the Greek and German parliaments. But there are plenty of obstacles yet to be... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish households face tougher years ahead Spanish households will struggle to maintain their recent impressive rates of spending growth. And with households facing years of stagnant wages and high unemployment, opposition to further economic... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow as temporary boosts fade The broader European economy has continued to weather the Greek crisis well, helped by lower oil prices and, in the euro-zone itself, the decline in the euro exchange rate. But these positive forces... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but cautious on Greece ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a distinctly dovish tone at today’s Governing Council meeting, reiterating the Council’s willingness to step up its QE programme if the economic outlook or... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further yield hardening means peripheral markets will be vulnerable Greece’s future in the euro-zone is still far from secure, and upcoming general elections in Portugal, Spain and Ireland could lead to significant political changes. Nevertheless, given that property... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggested that the depreciation of the euro over thepast year is still only providing a modest boost to export growth. 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
