Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2 15) Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from net trade can be sustained and... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise puts Draghi under pressure again The rise in the euro exchange rate has put the onus on the ECB to maintain and perhaps increase monetary policy support. We doubt that the Bank will announce any policy changes following its meeting... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth is not the beginning of a more substantial downturn. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain sluggish. And the problems in... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 2nd est.) The strong expansion in Spain’s economy in Q2 was powered by domestic demand. But this partly reflected the effects of lower oil prices and looser fiscal policy ahead of the general election. As these... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will labour reforms get France working again? France’s Government has finally started to tackle the country’s weak labour market. But we are sceptical that the reforms so far will be sufficient and think that more ambitious measures will be... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug) & GDP Breakdown (Q2) August’s German Ifo survey suggested that GDP growth had continued to accelerate in Q3. But expectations for the future were weakening even before the latest rise in the euro, suggesting that growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a relief after last month’s fall and signs of a slowdown in other indicators. But it still points to modest growth that will do little to erode the... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
