Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small rise in the German Ifo index in September came as a modestly pleasant surprise in light of the recent softening in some other business surveys. But the China slowdown and VW scandal present... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How does Italian private debt compare to public debt Italy’s public debt load is worryingly high, but private sector debt is much less of a concern. This provides some grounds for optimism that a recovery in the private sector which increases the size... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen retail rents buoyed by the tourist dollar The combination of strong growth in tourism and rapid population growth has driven up retail rental values in the Danish capital. We believe these factors will support further strong demand for prime... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) Today’s weak manufacturing PMI reading from China has contributed to the negative sentiment towards commodities, but the data are not as disastrous as some of the headlines have implied. The euro-zone... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s dip in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to steady GDP growth in Q3. But the uncertain global environment and fading boosts from thelower oil price and weaker euro look set to... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan cloud could rain on Spain This weekend’s regional election could put Catalonia on a course towards secession, casting a cloudover Spain’s recovery and galvanising other independent-minded regions of the euro-zone 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result does not address Greece’s biggest challenge While the result of Greece’s election strengthens the Syriza-led government’s mandate to implement the country’s third bailout, the major challenge for both Greece and its creditors – to find a... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a Brexit cause foreign direct investment to dry up? Whilst a British exit from the EU may cause the UK to lose out on some foreign direct investment (FDI), access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in the UK. Accordingly, we... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Syriza defeat kill the anti-austerity movement? Suggestions that a defeat for the Syriza party in this weekend’s Greek election would kill off the eurozone’s anti-austerity movement are over the top. But there is little prospect of Germany and the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should property investors be worried about the elections in Spain? Both the regional election in Catalonia later this month, and the general election in December, represent a risk for property investors in Spain. Yet there are a number of reasons to believe that the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
