Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Belgium’s tax shift boost growth? Belgium has the highest tax burden on labour in Europe, so measures announced recently aimed at reducing it are a positive step. However, the reforms do not go far enough. Accordingly, over the next... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark the end of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) October’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that the region’s recovery maintained its pace at the start of Q4. But current rates of growth are too slow to put upward pressure on inflation... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark theend of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Growth steady but slow Early indications from business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a steady but slow pace at the beginning of the fourth quarter. For example, the composite PMI... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests offer little hope of Greek lending revival ECB stress tests have offered some comfort about Greek banks’ solvency, but they are not out of the woods. And with a lack of access to cheap funding and depressed deposits seriously restricting banks... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have improved their fiscal positions in the year to September. But progress hasn’t been sufficient for most to put their debt ratios on a downward trend... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets pressure ECB to deliver Policymakers at the ECB have seemingly been priming the markets for additional stimulus to be announced in December. With some form of easing now priced into the market, the Bank is under pressure to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) While the euro-zone avoided a second straight month of falling prices in October, the absence of inflation in the region keeps the pressure firmly on the ECB to expand its QE programme in December. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.) Spain’s economic growth slowed a touch in the third quarter, suggesting that the country’s impressive recovery may be starting to lose a bit of steam. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office rental values set for further gains Across the main German cities unemployment rates are close to their lowest levels in decades. Office rents do not look particularly high, office employment is growing, occupier demand is expanding and... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s rise in German HICP inflation provided some reassurance that a prolonged period of deflation is not just around the corner. But there is still little sign of underlying price pressures in... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s EC business and consumer survey suggested that the euro-zone’s economic recovery may have gathered some pace at the start of Q4. But it also showed that consumer inflation expectations... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
