Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s solid rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s recovery might regain some pace in Q4 after Q3’s slight slowdown. But we doubt that the outlook has improved enough to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth set to peak in 2015 Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for yield compression over the next two years. Yet in most markets, lower yields in 2017 will lead to greater upward yield pressure in... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy really been the biggest beneficiary of QE? Recent suggestions that Italy has gained the most from QE paint a pretty bleak picture of the policy’s effectiveness. As it happens, we are not convinced that Italy has been the biggest winner. Either... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Nov.) The German ZEW investor survey showed that easing fears about the global environment led sentiment to improve in November and suggested that the Paris attacks have had little impact on sentiment so... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3) Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3 15) Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Spanish government bonds fairly priced? Spain has been one of the stand-out economies in the euro-zone this year. However, the recent political developments in Catalonia and Portugal are a source of concern and opinion polls suggest that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth slowdown seals case for more ECB action If there were any remaining doubts that the ECB will bow to the growing pressure to provide additional monetary policy stimulus to the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery, Q3’s disappointing GDP... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s economy likely to continue to disappoint Today’s Italian GDP data were disappointing and we expect the economy to continue to grow at a fairly slow pace. As a result, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall over the coming years... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Paris office rents finally turned a corner? The French economy is growing, but slowly, and employment growth will therefore not be particularly strong. However, with signs of a recovery in occupier activity and a tight CBD market, we expect... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prov.) Q3’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic recovery has lost further momentum and sealed the case for more policy support from the ECB. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Just how worried should we be about Spain? Political developments in Spain could not only dampen the country’s previously strong economic recovery but also threaten to re-ignite the euro-zone’s debt crisis. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s fall in euro-zone industrial production confirmed that the sector made virtually no contribution to GDP growth in Q3, suggesting that the overall economic recovery is unlikely to have... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
