Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to leave rates and guidance unchanged Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update French bond sell-off could get worse We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves? The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may cut rates in August, but rates may reach 3.00% later The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024) 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Capital values are close to bottoming out in most sectors as yields have stabilised. However, with no yield compression and moderating rental growth the recovery will be weak by past standards, not... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political uncertainty to hit French property values Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024) Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest. 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024) Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in... 19th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2024) The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only... 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
