Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And the still deeply negative rate of producer price inflation points to more... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone consumers have spent their oil windfalls The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is France in a state of economic emergency? President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s small rise in euro-zone CPI inflation presents no impediment to decisive additional policy loosening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next meeting in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big are the risks to retail rental growth in Stockholm? We do not expect either a slowing in house price growth or the newly-built Mall of Scandinavia to derail our retail rental value growth forecasts for Stockholm. As a result, we believe that in terms... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q4, 1st est.) Provisional Q4 GDP data from France, Spain and Austria suggested that the euro-zone’s modest economic recovery is unlikely to have gathered steam in the final quarter of last year, providing a weak... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s German CPI data revealed a slight rise in inflation following weather-related weakness in December. But while the rate is set to rise further in the months ahead, underlying inflation... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy slowed at the start of the year. 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How exposed is Germany to a hard landing in China? Even a very sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will higher corporate credit spreads produce a spike in property yields? In view of their strong past relationship, the latest jump in corporate bond yields could be a sign of an imminent turning point for European property markets. However, we are inclined to look through... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Berlin becomes Germany’s biggest investment market Berlin became Germany’s largest investment market in 2015, with investment growth of 120%, far outpacing that in the other major cities. Despite Berlin ranking far above Frankfurt in surveys of... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s German Ifo survey brought the strongest signals yet that the recent global economic concerns and associated financial market gyrations have started to hit the euro-zone’s biggest economy. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy got off to a slow start this year. With the twin boosts from previous sharp falls in oil prices and the euro set to fade, a... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is property in Lisbon overvalued? Lisbon has been highlighted as one of Europe’s top cities for investment prospects this year. Yet property yields are already at record lows. And as Portugal’s weak economic fundamentals limit the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
