Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4 15) In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) Despite the decline in the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in December, net exports probably increased in Q4 as a whole, raising GDP. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the debt crisis back? There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 Prov.) The fact that euro-zone GDP growth did not slow in Q4 last year provides little comfort in the current environment of global market turmoil and does not preclude the need for further decisive policy... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Frankfurt will underperform in 2016 Frankfurt’s office sector has struggled to shake off the legacy of the credit crunch and structural changes in the local labour market. Add in the likely dampening impact of the recent falls in equity... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European Prime Offices Begin to Look Fully Valued The falls in office yields witnessed in 2015, alongside the stabilisation of yields for other asset classes, mean that European office property no longer looks undervalued. Indeed, whilst the majority... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will market turmoil prompt a euro-zone recession? Several financial market indicators are warning of an impending euro-zone recession. For now, even we think that is too pessimistic. But it supports our non-consensus view that growth is set to slow... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Property Yield Falls to Slow in 2016 Prime yields fell substantially in 2015, but the rate of yield compression moderated in the third quarter. We think that yield falls will slow in most Western European markets in 2016, but that there... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank troubles intensify downside risks to growth The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s weak industrial production data from France and Italy showed that the sector is still struggling and add to the risk that euro-zone GDP growth slowed in Q4. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
