Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment and strength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 15) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And survey evidence suggests that the labour market recovery is starting to slow. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s economy after the election As expected, the Irish election did not provide a clear victor. It is possible that uncertainty while the parties negotiate to form a coalition government could hurt the economy. But the Irish economy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should the rest of the world fear ‘Brexit’? The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation back into negative territory clearly intensifies the pressure on the ECB to announce a decisive increase in its policy support following its meeting next... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4) Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How much scope is there for European office rents to rise? In recent years, across Europe, yield compression has been by far the largest driver of capital value growth. Yet property yields are fast approaching their limit. That means we now need to see a pick... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4 15) Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned about Poland’s shift to populism? There is a risk that medium-term rental growth in Poland will be lower due to the populous policies pursued by its new government. However, in the short-term, we think property investors will be more... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Why is the euro-zone economy slowing? Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Flash CPI (Feb.) German CPI data revealed that inflation fell back below zero in February and, alongside weak readings for French and Spanish inflation, suggested that the eurozone has re-entered deflation. 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy is slowing. 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political limbo poses growing risk to Spain The latest deal between two Spanish political parties does not guarantee the formation of a government and new elections may take place before long. While the economy has weathered the uncertainty... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
