Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly delivers, but it can’t work miracles While the ECB today delivered a package of measures which exceeded market expectations, there is no guarantee that it will revive the euro-zone’s flagging economic recovery and eliminate the threat of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK’s trade deficit is all the euro-zone’s fault For all the hopes of a rebalancing towards exports, the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has barely narrowed since the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that a chronic lack of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q4) In Q4, Ireland’s economy recorded another rapid expansion, but we are not too concerned about the economy overheating. Growth is likely to slow this year and price pressures appear to be fairly weak... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in French industrial production supports the message from German data that the sector had a good start to the year. But German exports fell in January, suggesting that softer global... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4) Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4 15) Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Not much relief in sight for Greece The resumption of the first formal review of Greece’s third bailout has raised hopes that the country’s creditors may soon grant it some form of debt relief. But it won’t be big enough to make Greece... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese yields to rise further on threat of QE exclusion The latest rise in Portuguese bond yields reflects fears that its debt will soon be classified as junk by all four major ratings agencies, leading the country to be excluded from the ECB’s asset... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the consumer recovery, which boosted growth last year, is losing steam. With recent evidence that growth is slowing and inflation expectations... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s surprisingly strong gain in German industrial production is unlikely to signal the start of a lasting recovery and hence should not discourage the ECB from further bold policy loosening on... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth to slow Capital value growth is likely to have peaked in 2015, but further falls in yields and steady rental value growth will keep capital values rising in 2016 and 2017. Yet, there will be country and city... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook The Euro-zone Commercial Property Analyst Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for rental growth in some markets, and also pushed down our near term forecasts for property yields. Yet in most markets, lower yields... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How long will deflation last this time? The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch The ECB can’t afford to disappoint again The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) January’s euro-zone retail sales data provided some relief that the consumer sector did not lose as much steam as had been feared around the turn of the year. But the outlook for the sector is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation is back... again Recent evidence of a slowdown in the euro-zone’s economic recovery has been accompanied by a drop in consumer price inflation back below zero in February. The fall was partly down to food and energy... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
