Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (May) The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024) June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health. 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands set to outperform the euro-zone average With all eyes on France, it is easy to forget that the Netherlands has also been experiencing political disruption over the last 12 months. But politics there has proved less disruptive to markets and... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key economic implications of a Labour govt Since Labour’s fiscal plans are very similar to the current government’s and as Labour is unlikely to deviate from its manifesto quickly, we doubt we will be ripping up our economic forecasts on Day 1... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why we think yield compression will be limited With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower... 21st June 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2024) The sharp drop in the euro-zone Composite PMI in June suggests a solid recovery in the euro-zone economy is not a done deal, with activity having apparently stagnated this month. Meanwhile, aggregate... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024) June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2024) The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced soon and... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2024) May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of worse-than-expected outturns. However, they do little to reduce the fiscal constraints that will... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
