Europe Economics Update Which country might be next to hold an EU referendum? The UK’s vote to leave the EU has been followed by calls for referendums in other countries. And, notably, euro-scepticism in some countries seems to be even stronger than in the UK. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Immediate impact of Brexit limited for European property The UK’s decision to leave the EU is unlikely to cause a significant decline in aggregate investment activity in continental Europe. However, it could boost investor demand for commercial property in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB needs to act decisively The UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union has put more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide additional policy support. We now expect an acceleration in the pace of the ECB’s asset... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) June’s rise in the German Ifo measure of business confidence suggests that the economy continued to grow at pretty healthy rate in Q2. But given the financial market reaction to the UK’s vote to leave... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) June’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 17-month low suggests that strong GDP growth in Q1 was not the start of a more pronounced economic recovery. Indeed, the PMI points to growth slowing... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to cut interest rates in September The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged today, but with the economy weak and inflation set to fall, we think that further loosening is on the way. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rise in Athens retail rents doesn’t signal a wider market revival Prime retail rents in Athens moved sharply higher in the first quarter. However, a weak economic environment will limit further upside, while also keeping industrial and office rents in check. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam office rents set to shrug off high vacancy rate Decent economic growth in the Netherlands in the next few years will support office occupier demand. Coupled with low availability for modern space this means that, rather than acting as a brake on... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will further political uncertainty in Spain derail the recovery? If Spain’s upcoming election returns an anti-austerity coalition to power then there would probably be an immediate rise in government bond yields. But whatever the result, much-needed reforms are... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Brexit trigger the ECB’s OMTs? Today’s ruling by the German constitutional court leaves the ECB free to implement its long-awaited OMT programme, if deemed necessary. And a possible trigger for OMTs – Brexit – might be just a few... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
