Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2 16, 1st Estimate) The first estimate of Sweden’s GDP in Q2 was much weaker than expected, and the release also revealed a downward revision to growth in what was an already-soft Q1. 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium among most exposed to Brexit fallout A weaker outlook for the external sector on the back of the UK’s Brexit vote will hit Belgium’s open economy harder than most. And with consumers looking poorly placed to take up the slack, the... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How does Brexit affect our European commercial property forecasts? A prolonged period of looser monetary policy in the wake of Brexit will mean that prime European commercial property capital values will surpass our previous forecasts, despite weaker rental growth. 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Early Brexit signals provide some comfort Last week’s euro-zone and country level data releases started to lift some of the heavy fog on the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the currency union’s economy. The early signs are... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s slight fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the real economy has generally shrugged off the financial market volatility that followed the UK’s Brexit vote, but remains sluggish. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB set to act in September After leaving policy on hold today, the ECB also stopped short of promising imminent policy easing. But President Draghi reiterated that the Bank is ready to act and we believe that it will up the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q2) July’s German ZEW Survey, which was conducted over the past two weeks, suggests that investors are more worried about the effects of Brexit on the German economy than the financial market response has... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Mainland Europe investment likely to be boosted by Brexit On first sight, European investment turnover in H1 was weaker than in the same period in 2015. However, removing the UK from the analysis means that activity has actually ticked up slightly compared... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brexit to push prime German property yields even lower Lower risk free rates and a relatively strong economy mean that prime property yields in Germany are set to fall even further in the wake of Brexit. While other markets will also see lower property... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Mixed effect of Brexit on CEE property markets As in core Europe, bond yields in the CEE region have fallen indiscriminately in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. This will mean that, whilst economic growth will be a touch weaker, in the long-run... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) & Final CPI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports will have cushioned the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. Further ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year, as slower... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Brexit vote adds to downside risks The UK’s vote to leave the EU has weakened the outlook for the European Economy. Admittedly, the financial market reaction has been muted and we think that the UK will ultimately fare well outside the... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
