Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) The weakness of euro-zone industry in July suggests that industrial production will struggle to expand at all over Q3 and doesn’t bode well for GDP growth this quarter. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q2) The fact that ZEW investor sentiment was unchanged in September despite the easing of fears about the effects of Brexit adds to signs that underlying growth in the German economy is set to slow. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Despite weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation in August, price pressures are set to increase in the coming months. And as higher inflation feeds through to inflation expectations, the Riksbank will... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Despite weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation in August, price pressures are set to increase in the coming months. And as higher inflation feeds through to inflation expectations, the Riksbank will... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums Since the UK’s Brexit vote, eurosceptic parties elsewhere have increased their calls for referendumson EU or euro membership. While the potential for eurosceptics to gain power and hold votesvaries... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yields to fall further as monetary policy stays looser for longer The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softer rental growth outlook will be offset by further yield compression In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, central banks have signalled a looser monetary policy stance ahead. Nevertheless, we expect economic growth to be weaker, which has led us to reduce our... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down The ECB’s decision last week not to announce an extension to its asset purchase programme led us to revise our year-end forecast for the euro exchange rate. But we still think that looser monetary... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB a touch less dovish, but its work is not done President Draghi suggested today that a dramatic increase in ECB policy support is not imminent. But we still expect the Bank to extend its QE programme by six months to next September and it may yet... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales’ strong start to Q3 won’t be sustained The first official euro-zone data release for July – retail sales – suggested that the consumer sector made a strong start to Q3. Indeed, the 1.1% rise in sales pushed the annual growth rate up to 2.7... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to dropto a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s drop in German industrial production may have partly reflected temporary factors, but it provides a very weak base for GDP in Q3. The industrial sector should resume its expansion in the coming... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) Today’s final estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth from the first quarter was largely due to household spending. Over the rest of the year, we think that consumer spending will... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
