ECB Watch Preparing for a December QE extension The ECB’s Governing Council is unlikely to unveil any policy changes at its forthcoming meeting on 20th October. But we expect it to prepare the ground for an extension of its Asset Purchase Programme... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is investor confidence in Madrid offices misplaced? A sharp decline in prime Madrid office yields has fully closed the spread over Milan for just the third time since 1991. With a stronger economic outlook, we think investors will continue to favour... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tide turning towards stimulus With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production in August suggests that the sectorprovided a positive, albeit small, boost to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry isunlikely to be able to prevent the... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo retail rents to lift higher, despite slow economic growth The Norwegian consumer sector has been resilient in the face of the most recent economic slowdown. Additionally, retail sales in Oslo have outperformed the national average and will support strong... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is broadly encouraging, although the index still points to a slowdown in German GDP growth. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Rising political risks threaten growth outlook The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Softer employment growth to weigh on Dublin office demand Uncertainty ahead of the UK’s vote to leave the EU is likely to explain, at least in part, the easing of office take-up in Dublin in H1. But with an expected slowdown in job creation likely to dampen... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB going to taper? We think that the rise in government bond yields and slight appreciation of the euro after last week’sreports that the ECB is considering tapering its asset purchases were overdone. After all, in... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Aug.) Sharp rises in industrial production in Germany, France and Spain suggest that industry might contribute positively to euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) There have been further signs of fiscal slippage in the peripheral economies this month. Germany is also planning a tax cut, but this does not mark a dramatic change in its fiscal stance. It intends... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017 The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Iceland will keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017 The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Icelandwill keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep. 16) August’s data suggest that euro-zone retail sales growth picked up in Q3, whileSeptember’s Composite PMI implies that growth in the wider economy slowedonly slightly. But headline inflation will soon... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed message about euro-zone growth Recent activity indicators have provided mixed messages about euro-zone growth. The Composite PMI fell to an 18-month low in September, whereas the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reached a... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone growth picking up or slowing? The euro-zone’s two main activity surveys have given conflicting evidence about the state of the economy at the end of the third quarter, with the Composite PMI apparently pointing to slowing GDP... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
