Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal Notwithstanding one or two more positive signs, world trade remains in the doldrums. And the fact that the EU-Canada trade agreement may be scuppered by a regional Belgian government does not bode... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s increase in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to a recent run of positive news about the economy. Germany looks set to easily outperform the euro-zone average this year... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a ten-month high suggests that GDP growth may have picked up at the start of Q4. Nevertheless, there is a concerning divergence in conditions between the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might derail our European property yield forecasts? The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts Last week, the European Commission (EC) published the draft Budgets for 2017 as submitted by eurozone governments. On the face of it at least, there is little for the EC to be concerned about. All... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Interest rates to be left unchanged until 2017 The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 27th October. Indeed, at its last meeting in September the Bank changed the wording in its policy statement from... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch No need for the Riksbank to loosen policy further Inflation has undershot the Riksbank’s forecastssince it last met to set policy in September. Butwe expect inflation to rise again before long, andwith economic conditions strong there is lesspressure... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals December QE extension President Draghi did not explicitly promise imminent policy action today. But he signalled that assetpurchases would not end abruptly. And as tapering has apparently still not been discussed, we... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September’s Swedish Labour Force Survey confirmed that the previous month’s poorresults were a one-off and highlights the tightness of the labour market. With firms’hiring intentions picking up in... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign The recent increase in French unemployment seems unlikely to be reversed rapidly. And while a new government may be elected next year promising job-boosting reforms, its success will be limited by... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in mainland Europe running at nine-year high The first European investment data for Q3 show that volumes were down sharply compared to the same quarter a year ago. But that was driven by subdued activity in the UK which, being one of the most... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB won’t hike rates for some time yet Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier... 16th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Q3 data point to fairly slow growth Recent official activity data for the euro-zone have been fairly encouraging. Coupled with the unofficial survey evidence, they suggest that the region’s GDP growth might have maintained its pace or... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose in August, but it probably fell over Q3 as a whole. Looking ahead, we think that the trade surplus will narrow further this year as global demand growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
