Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies? The importance of international trade to the Nordics and Switzerland, as well as the franc’s role as a safe haven, mean that the outcome of the US election is potentially important to the region. This... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s sharp drop in German industrial production partly reflected payback from a sharp rise last month, and production posted a solid gain in Q3 as a whole. Nonetheless, the data are... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How far can German property yields fall? Prime property yields in Germany continue to fall. Yet, despite being well below pre-financial crisis lows, commercial property still looks fairly valued relative to other assets. With the ultra-loose... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) As the European Commission (EC) undertakes its annual review of euro-zone member states’ budget submissions, yet more signs of fiscal slippage emerged in the South. Finances in Spain and Portugal... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.) The fading boost to consumers’ spending power from lower energy prices may bebehind September’s fall in euro-zone retail sales. As we have warned for sometime, consumer spending growth is set to... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s Swiss CPI data did little to ease fears that the economy may be experiencing a sustained bout of damaging deflation. This supports our view that additional monetary policy support will be... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property yields still have room for maneouvre Bond and equity dividend yields fell in Q3 meaning that, although property yields ticked down again, relative property valuations tended to improve over the quarter. 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone? According to the Sentix investor survey, Italy is now the most likely country to leave the euro-zone in the next 12 months. While we think that Italy remaining in the currency union is still the more... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank takes centre stage The most noteworthy market developments last month were prompted by expectations of further policy loosening from Sweden’s Riksbank, with the krona depreciating sharply last month as a result... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) September’s euro-zone unemployment data suggest that, while the labour market is still strengthening, it is doing so at a slow pace. And forward-looking indicators suggest that the labour market... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Production Indices (Sep.) and Services PMI (Oct.) September’s sharp rise in Swedish industrial production suggests that August’s large fall was due to one-off effects. Looking ahead, the rise in the services PMI supports the message from earlier... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth in Lisbon down but not out Prime retail rents in Lisbon have risen by more than one-third in the last six years, supported by policy reform, a rise in tourist numbers and an economic recovery. But, with slower economic growth... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) & Swiss Retail Sales (Sep.) October’s manufacturing PMIs generally painted a positive picture of economic growth.But the surveys’ price indices suggest that inflationary pressures vary across the region. 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Little risk to growth from Iceland’s election The next Icelandic government may be an unconventional one, but improvements to Iceland’s public finances and external position since the crisis mean that there is little risk to economic growth. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
