Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Latest data highlight varying inflation outlooks October’s consumer prices data highlight the contrasting inflation outlooks in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. In Sweden, consumer price inflation picked up to its strongest rate in four-and-a-half... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems? After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged rests on overly cautious assumptions for the króna and on fears about fiscal policy and capital controls that will probably not... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. However, we think that growth will slow over the coming quarters. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s rise in inflation was driven almost entirely by energy effects whileunderlying measures of inflation remain weak. As such, the Riksbank seems all butcertain to loosen monetary policy at its... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Finnish GDP (Q3) Norway’s economic recovery slowed in Q3, while Finland’s picked up. But surveys suggest that growth in both countries might improve over the coming quarters. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) Despite September’s fall in euro-zone industrial production, industry probably made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry is unlikely to prevent overall economic growth from... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Mixed quarter for the non-euro-zone markets A middling couple of quarters for economic growth help explain the somewhat weak performance of rental values in Q3. However, investment activity generally held up well and strong demand for prime... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Fall in yields regains momentum in Q3 The pace at which all-property euro-zone yields are falling picked up in Q3. The 11bp decline was larger than the 6bp fall in Q2 and broad-based across both sectors and markets. As a result, capital... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) In October, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation was unchanged at a joint 14-month low. We think that it will fall sharply next year, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate from 0.5%... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates We think that the sharp appreciation of the króna over recent months will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to cut its inflation forecasts next week. As a result, although the Bank has previously... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension Today’s minutes showed broad support for an extension of the Riksbank’s government bond purchase programme. Combined with the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s victory in the US, an extension of... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks The limited immediate reaction in European financial markets to Donald Trump’s victory appears to support our view that the outcome will have few direct economic implications. If anything, though, the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
