Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden (Dec.) & Norway (Nov.) Labour Market Data December’s labour market data suggest that wage pressures are building in Sweden, supporting our view that the Riksbank will tighten policy this year. But in Norway, despite November’s fall in... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Capital raising down in 2016, but far from out On the surface, lower levels of fund-raising in 2016 hint at concerns about pricing at this stage of the cycle. However, in light of tough competition for prime assets and a heightened perception of... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are the risks to Southern European property on the rise? Political and economic uncertainty this year could drive increased volatility in sovereign bond yields in Southern Europe. But in the absence of a sharp and sustained shift higher, we think prime... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to firm Following a record 2015, investment activity in Germany slipped a little in 2016. However, prime office yields fell further in Q4, suggesting that investors still see value in the German market. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone government bond spreads balloon in 2017? We expect euro-zone government bond spreads to reach multi-year highs in 2017, with the largest increases in Italy and France, due to rising doubts about their futures in the currency union. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Six key calls for European commercial property in 2017 As a new year begins and investors focus on key themes and forecasts for the year ahead, we have taken the opportunity to outline some of our key calls for 2017 and the thinking behind them. 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMIs (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation mainly reflected anticipated energy effects and will therefore not deter the ECB from its commitment to sustained policy loosening. 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs suggest that Swiss, Swedish and Danish manufacturers ended 2016 on a strong note, but their Norwegian counterparts are still lagging behind. 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry won’t prevent a slowdown in overall growth The short-term outlook for euro-zone industry is positive. Surveys suggest that output growth will rise in the coming months and, if sustained, the recent decline of the euro should provide a boost... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Should investors be worried by the ECB’s apparent taper? The ECB’s recent announcement of a slower rate of asset purchases is not a sign that the normalisation in euro-zone monetary policy has moved closer. We therefore expect Bund yields to be still close... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s fall in euro-zone industrial production contrasts with the brighter picture painted by the business surveys. While industrial growth might pick-up slightly in the near term, it is unlikely... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Keeping up the fight against a strong franc The Swiss National Bank will stress after its meeting on 15th December that it is prepared to act decisively to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Indeed... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s ZEW survey suggested that investors were not too concerned about the effects of euro-zone political uncertainty on the German economy, although the index still points to a slowdown in GDP... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
