Europe Economics Weekly Softly, softly...the ECB is tweaking its forward guidance Our reading of the minutes of the ECB’s October policy meeting is that the Bank has begun to prepare the ground for an end to its asset purchases. Before long, the ECB seems set to stop promising to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Solid economic growth supports steady rise in rents The European economic recovery has been extended into the final quarter of the year, yet inflation remains well below target in most economies. As a result, occupier demand continued in a strong vein... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Buoyant Germany brightens euro-zone prospects Data this week confirmed that the euro-zone had a very good Q3, with a 0.6% rise in quarterly GDP pushing the annual growth rate up to 2.5% – the highest since early 2011. This was stronger than the 2... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Nordic house price inflation slowing House price inflation in several Nordic economies is slowing, and in some cases sharply. In Sweden housing inflation fell to 6.7% in October, its slowest in four years. And in Stockholm, where prices... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations hold steady this quarter Falls in many government bond yields and in equity dividend yields this quarter meant that despite small falls in property yields, overall valuation scores improved slightly this quarter. Nevertheless... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer sector in good shape heading into Q4 The monthly data suggest that consumer spending was behind the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But September’s rise in retail sales provided a strong starting point for Q4. And the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dovish ECB outlook implies slower yield rises Taking account of the ECB’s dovish tone at its last meeting, we have lowered our Bund yield forecasts for the next few years. As a result, the Bank’s stance bodes well for commercial property yields... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) The drop in German industrial production in September did not reverse August’s sharp rise. The sector performed well in Q3 as a whole and surveys point to an acceleration to come. 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Which assets will the ECB buy in 2018? The ECB’s decision last week to extend its bond-buying well into 2018 means that it will probably need to change the composition of its purchases. After all, it has already had to reduce its purchases... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy is an exception and has come under fire for a lack of fiscal... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs are consistent with strong growth in industrial output. But only in Sweden do we expect this to put sustained upward pressure on inflation. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central bank actions push bond yields down In October, a combination of rising bond yields in the US and lower bond yields at home pushed Nordic and Swiss currencies down against the dollar. Weaker exchange rates, as well as decent economic... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Valuation concerns haven’t deterred investors yet Q3 investment in mainland European commercial property was the highest on record for a third quarter, despite pricing concerns. At the same time, a lack of prime assets in key markets appears to be... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery to withstand political concerns Politics are in focus yet again, with the German and Austrian elections revealing reduced support for mainstream parties and the push for Catalan independence creating much uncertainty. But business... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
