Europe Chart Pack Consumer spending dampened by temporary factors The first breakdown of euro-zone Q4 GDP showed that consumer spending growth slowed to just 0.2%, the weakest rate since Q1 2014. Encouragingly though, this appears to have been due to temporary... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by net exports. Timelier evidence suggests that growth is no longer accelerating, but we still expect the... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are Trump’s tariffs for the euro-zone? The direct macroeconomic effects of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU exports would be very small. However, if this signals the beginning of a bigger shift towards US protectionism, followed by... 5th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jan.), PMIs (Feb.) & Greek GDP (Q4) The recent softness of euro-zone retail sales is probably due to temporary factors and surveys bode well for the outlook. Meanwhile, the Greek economy finished last year on a weak note. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A month to forget for Swedish krona and Swiss shares While all of the Nordic currencies and the Swiss franc depreciated against the dollar in February, weak Swedish inflation data and dovish comments from the Riksbank meant that the drop in the krona... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to continued strong growth. But this only seems to be causing underlying inflationary pressure to build in Sweden. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to tighten further than previously expected Central banks in the major advanced economies are now moving in the same direction, but they are doing so at very different speeds. The Fed is tightening policy in earnest, with six rate hikes likely... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side Luis de Guindos, who is set to replace Vítor Constâncio as the ECB’s Vice President this June, may well be less dovish than his predecessor. What’s more, his appointment makes it more likely that arch... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deadlock in negotiations next week? Given that the UK Government has disagreements with the EU over the scope of the transition deal, and no new solutions to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland have been proposed, there is a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the slowdown in domestic demand be sustained? Data released this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy finished 2017 on a strong footing. But the composition of growth shifted markedly in the second half of last year, with net trade making a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor More markets looking overvalued Although there was little movement in government bond yields and equity dividend yields in Q4, further declines in property yields mean that valuations have generally worsened this quarter. Over 40%... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield falls not derailed by the slowdown in investment Solid economic growth in both Western and Emerging Europe appears to have continued into Q4. This kept expansionary activity amongst occupiers at strong levels. This, in turn, has driven vacancy rates... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s fall in German industrial production came as no surprise after a surge in November and it is very unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. We still see German GDP rising by about 2.7... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do about rising Bund yields? German Bund yields continued to rise this week, with the 10-year yield hitting a 29-month high. Higher yields are unlikely to have much of a direct effect on the German economy, but by boosting the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics French & Spanish GDP (Q4) The French economy’s healthy expansion in Q4 rounded off a strong year, while surveys point to an acceleration in growth ahead. Meanwhile, tensions in Catalonia had little impact on Spanish growth. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
