Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump concerns weigh on Nordic and Swiss markets In March, equity prices and bond yields in the Nordics and Switzerland were pushed down by concerns about US trade policy, while exchange rate movements were more mixed. Looking ahead, we expect... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.) The further fall in the EC’s measure of economic sentiment in March echoes the message from the other surveys that euro-zone GDP growth may be at its peak. And with consumers’ inflation expectations... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence from the activity surveys that economic growth has topped out. But with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What does the Brexit transition deal mean for the EU? A key hurdle in securing a relatively smooth UK exit from the EU has been passed. The Brexit transition deal preserves the current economic relationship between the UK and the EU for 21 months after... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.) March’s PMI and Ifo surveys point to a softening of euro-zone growth, which we had expected after such a strong run and which has not caused us to change our upbeat GDP forecasts. But it certainly... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will productivity growth start to pick up? The weakness of euro-zone productivity growth since the global financial crisis can in part be attributed to cyclical factors. As these factors reverse, there is scope for economic growth to remain... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Total returns set to slow throughout the region Property yield falls will be limited in Scandinavia this year as the region’s markets are looking increasingly late-cycle. The prospects are somewhat brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields can... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth has peaked The upswing in euro-zone economic growth will underpin occupier demand. However, rising development will act as a headwind for rental growth. Indeed, in the office, retail and industrial sectors, we... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed in January, and since then survey indicators of export orders have weakened slightly. Nevertheless, we think that the euro-zone’s trade surplus... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? This week has featured a raft of speeches from the ECB’s Governing Council on the outlook for monetary policy, displaying a range of views among its members. Several would clearly prefer to end asset... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q4) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data support our view that the ECB will act very patiently in normalising its monetary policy stance. Indeed, higher interest rates remain a long way off. 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages won’t prompt surge in wage growth Labour shortages are a growing problem in parts of the euro-zone and are likely to persist due to mismatches of skills and barriers to relocation. But given the degree of labour market slack in the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Production (Jan.) & Employment (Q4) January’s fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a weak start to 2018, but much of the decline was due to temporary weather effects. The business surveys suggest that once this volatility... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE has changed this year in more ways than one In addition to reducing the monthly pace of its asset purchases from €60bn to €30bn, in January the ECB also changed the composition of its purchases. Corporate sector debt now accounts for a larger... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jan.) Large declines in energy output as a result unseasonably-warm temperatures explain much of the weakness in industrial production across the euro-zone in January. Meanwhile, the business surveys remain... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Loosening bias gone, but tightening is some way off The ECB’s decision to remove the loosening bias from its monetary policy statement today was arguably the first step along a path of policy normalisation. But note that its balance sheet will continue... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
