Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI surveys suggest that the apparent sharp slowdown in Q1 was not the beginning of a major downturn, although growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen last year. Overall, the data... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Expect “closed-mouth” operations from Mr Draghi With the economic data weakening, but some members of the Governing Council keen to bring asset purchases to an end, President Draghi is unlikely to give much away next week. We suspect that the ECB... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will blockchain revolutionise the property industry? A quick internet search suggests that blockchain technology could have far-reaching changes for a multitude of industries, including commercial property. But even if the technology doesn’t live up to... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is the euro heading? The euro has been buffeted recently by concerns about protectionism, which have caused it to strengthen, and softer economic data, which have caused it to weaken. While the risks of an all-out trade... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) After widening in February, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus is on track to be little changed in Q1. Looking ahead, the surveys suggest that the contribution from net trade to economic... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone industrial production confirms that the sector made a soft start to 2018. But as this partly reflected temporary factors in Germany and the industrial surveys remain... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spanish inflation set to pick up? Despite Spain’s recent strong run of form and the prospect of higher wage growth, we suspect that core inflation will remain subdued at close to 1% this year and next. With inflation set to remain in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French, Italian & Dutch Industrial Production (Feb.) National data suggest that the euro-zone’s industrial sector fared poorly in February, despite whopping rises in energy production as a result of the unseasonably cold weather across much of the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone’s upturn screeching to a halt? The most recent official euro-zone data have been weak and the latest business surveys are consistent in their message that the economic expansion has lost momentum. A sanguine view of this is that... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Feb.) February’s sharp fall in industrial production confirms that the German economy made a soft start to the year. But the business surveys suggest that this should prove to be temporary. 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lending data add to evidence that growth has peaked Euro-zone money and lending growth slowed in February, adding to the evidence from the official data and business surveys that economic growth has peaked. Growth in “narrow” money – which is the sum... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Completions to take the edge off Milan rental growth Occupier demand in Milan is likely to stay healthy again this year, supporting further rental growth. But with completions expected to rise and rents close to previous highs, we don’t expect to see a... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending made a slow start to 2018. And March’s Composite PMI implies that overall GDP growth has peaked. But we remain fairly optimistic... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment to its lowest level since late 2008 is good news for the ECB. But with core inflation remained weak in March, so the Bank will continue to stress its patient... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic strength keeps French fiscal reform on track Positive fiscal data have been something of a rarity in France in recent years, so President Emmanuel Macron will have welcomed the news earlier this week that the French budget deficit for 2017 was... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
