Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Majority of markets overvalued Although property yields ticked down only slightly in Q1, rises in both government bond yields and equity dividend yields meant that property valuations deteriorated. For the first time since we have... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s fall in the euro-zone PMI yet again partly reflected temporary factors, but the continued softness of the surveys in Q2 is certainly a concern. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come? Data released this week added to the evidence that soft global demand and the previous appreciation of the euro have taken a toll on euro-zone exports. We doubt that exports will regain all of their... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Running out of steam A number of indicators suggest that the current cycle is running out of steam. Although investment across the euro-zone was up compared to the first quarter of last year, on a four-quarter basis, it... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment market losing momentum Economic growth is likely to have softened in both Western Europe and Emerging Europe in Q1. Nevertheless, take-up of office space stayed strong and rental values in all three sectors were stable or... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Macron’s first year bodes well for France One year into President Emmanuel Macron’s term, the French economy is performing well. Annual GDP growth is healthy and the labour market is recovering steadily. But this owes little to Macron’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors Euro-zone GDP data for Q1 were pretty weak. Indeed, quarterly growth in the euro-zone economy slowed from 0.7% in Q4 to just 0.4%, its weakest rate since Q3 2016. And national data showed that growth... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yield correction will be limited As the ECB starts to tighten monetary policy, higher risk-free rates are likely to put upward pressure on property yields. However, we think that real equilibrium interest rates are now lower than in... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) March’s improvements in German industrial production and the trade balance support our view that while Q1 was a pretty poor quarter, this will not mark the start of a sustained economic slowdown. 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Did the euro-zone catch a cold in Q1? We think that temporary factors – including industrial action, cold weather and an outbreak of the flu – explain about 0.2 percentage points of the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth from 0.7%... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big is the threat of zombie malls in Europe? Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita and tighter planning... 3rd May 2018 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s manufacturing PMIs provide some reassurance that the Swiss and Norwegian economies bounced back after making slow starts to the year. Sweden’s PMI was quite weak, but other survey indicators... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What do higher oil prices mean for euro-zone inflation? The upward revision to our 2018 oil price forecast means that the contribution from energy to headline inflation will be a bit bigger than we had previously assumed. But this effect is likely to be... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s unchanged reading in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment provides further reassurance that the weakness of activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French and Spanish GDP (Q4) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The first estimates of French, Spanish and Austrian GDP in Q1 suggest that quarterly growth in the euro-zone as a whole slowed from Q4’s 0.7% to around 0.4%. Meanwhile, there were no signs of rising... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB confident about inflation despite slower growth The ECB opted to leave its policy and guidance unchanged today, expressing caution about the softer tone of economic data. But it argued that growth was merely moderating from a strong pace and... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
