Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandinavia and Switzerland look late-cycle The cycle in Scandinavia and Switzerland is showing signs of turning, with investment activity down compared to 2017 and 2016. The prospects are brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields are likely to... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mixed signals from Italy’s new government Italy’s new prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, gave his maiden speech to parliament this week, and his comments riled the markets. After all, he reiterated the Government’s intentions to cut taxes... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will happen to Italy’s TARGET2 liabilities? Although Italy is likely to stay in the euro-zone for the foreseeable future, recent political developments have resurrected the possibility of it leaving at some point and raised the issue of how... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil Politics have captured the limelight over the past month. Bond yields in Italy have risen sharply over the past few weeks as concerns about debt sustainability and the new government’s commitment to... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, Breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth was caused by net trade. While the latest evidence suggests that growth is unlikely to pick up much in Q2, it should still... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May) April’s euro-zone retail sales data imply that the consumer sector fared a little better in Q2 than it did in Q1. Nevertheless, May’s Composite PMI is consistent with the pace of GDP growth remaining... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Italy turmoil boosts Swiss franc and government bonds The recent political turmoil in Italy gave the Swiss franc and Nordic & Swiss government bonds a boost at the end of May as investors sought safe havens. Stronger exchange rates weighed on equities in... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) After reaching an eight-month high in May, core inflation looks set to rise further. Moreover, recent increases in oil prices will push headline inflation above 2% next month. While the recent drama... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will turmoil in Italy spark contagion? The fallout from the latest political turmoil in Italy has so far been contained, with limited impact on other euro-zone countries’ financial markets. There are good reasons to expect this to remain... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might cause property yields to rise sharply? In the absence of a sharp surge in euro-zone inflation, a fresh recession or protracted stagnation, or a major escalation of current political tensions, property yields are more likely to drift slowly... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) After falling only slightly in May, the EC’s measure of economic sentiment provides some reassurance that the softness in activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss KOF The Swedish economy made a strong start to 2018 and the outlook is positive. Healthy growth is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise interest rates at the end of... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight Italy’s fragile situation If sentiment towards Italy deteriorates as a result of the current political situation, we could see renewed capital flight and a further worsening of Italy’s already-high TARGET2 liabilities. But... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and lending data provide further evidence that economic growth has peaked. While households’ and firms’ demand for loans is still fairly strong, the deteriorating situation in... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB’s hopes on growth be dashed? The “account” of the ECB’s April meeting, released this week, revealed that policymakers had taken a pretty sanguine view of the weakness of survey indicators and hard data in the first few months of... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
